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PRMIA 8010 ORM Exam is intended for professionals who are interested in pursuing a career in operational risk management or who are already working in the field and seeking to enhance their skills and knowledge. Operational Risk Manager (ORM) Exam certification is particularly relevant to individuals working in financial institutions, such as banks, insurance companies, and asset management firms. The PRMIA 8010 ORM Exam is recognized globally and is highly regarded by employers in the financial industry. Passing the exam demonstrates a candidate's ability to implement effective operational risk management practices and can open up new career opportunities in this growing field.
NEW QUESTION # 41
Which of the following statements are true:
I. The sum of unexpected losses for individual loans in a portfolio is equal to the total unexpected loss for the portfolio.
II. The sum of unexpected losses for individual loans in a portfolio is less than the total unexpected loss for the portfolio.
III. The sum of unexpected losses forindividual loans in a portfolio is greater than the total unexpected loss for the portfolio.
IV. The unexpected loss for the portfolio is driven by the unexpected losses of the individual loans in the portfolio and the default correlation between these loans.
- A. II and IV
- B. III and IV
- C. I and II
- D. I, II and III
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Unexpected losses (UEL) for individual loans in a portfolio will always sum to greater than the total unexpected loss for the portfolio (unless all the loans are correlatedin such a way that they default together).
This is akin to the 'diversification effect' in market risk, in other words, not all the obligors would default together. So the UEL for the portfolio will always be less than the sum of the UELs for individual loans.
Therefore statement III is true.This 'diversification effect' will be affected by the default correlations between the obligors, in cases where the probability of various obligors defaulting together is low, the UEL for the portfolio would bemuch less than the UEL for the individual loans. Hence statement IV is true.I and II are false for the reasons explained above.
NEW QUESTION # 42
Which of the following statements are true:
I. Heavy tailed parametricdistributions are a good choice for severity modeling in operational risk.
II. Heavy tailed body-tail distributions are a good choice for severity modeling in operational risk.
III. Log-likelihood is a means to estimate parameters for a distribution.
IV. Body-tail distributions allow modeling small losses differently from large ones.
- A. II, III and IV
- B. II and III
- C. I and IV
- D. All of the above
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
When modeling for operational risk, we are generally concerned with tail losses - this isbecause the horizon for operational risk is 1 year at the 99.9th percentile. Since the 99.9th percentile is in the tail region, we would like to ensure that the tails are modeled as accurately as possible. Operational risk distributions are modeled usingheavy tailed distributions.
Heavy tailed parametric distributions such as log-normal, pareto and others are therefore a good choice for modeling risk severity, therefore statement I is correct.
Body-tail distributions are combinations of parametric distributions, with different types of distributions being used to model the body and the tail - this provides flexibility because small and medium losses upto a threshold can be modeled using one distribution, and losses beyond the threshold can be modeled usinga different distribution that is a better estimate of the tail. Statement II is therefore correct.
A log-likelihood function simplifies the optimization of a regular likelihood function. We generally maximize (or minimize the risk functional) a likelihoodfunction with a view to estimating the parameters of the underlying distribution. If the likelihood function is complex, it may sometimes make it mathematically easier to optimize the log of the function - as that changes exponents and multiplications toadditions, while behaving in the same way as the underlying function. Therefore statement III is correct, log-likelihood is a means to estimate parameters for a distribution.
Statement IV is correct as body-tail distributions allow modeling different partsof the distribution differently from each other.
NEW QUESTION # 43
Which of the following best describes economic capital?
- A. Economic capital reflects the amount of capital required to maintain a firm's target credit rating
- B. Economic capital is the amount of regulatory capital that minimizes the cost ofcapital for firm
- C. Economic capital is a form of provision for market risk losses should adverse conditions arise
- D. Economic capital is the amount of regulatory capital mandated for financial institutions in the OECD countries
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
Economic capitalis often calculated with a view to maintaining the credit ratings for a firm. It is the capital available to absorb unexpected losses, and credit ratings are also based upon a certain probability of default.
Economic capital is often calculated at a levelequal to the confidence required for the desired credit rating. For example, if the probability of default for a AA rating is 0.02%, and the firm desires to hold an AA rating, then economic capital maintained at a confidence level of 99.98% would allow for such a rating. In this case, economic capital set at a 99.8% level can be thought of as the level of losses that would not be exceeded with a 99.8% probability, and would help get the firm its desired credit rating.
Choice 'c' is the correct answer. Economic capital does not target minimizing the cost of capital, nor is it a provision for losses arising from market risk. The concept of economic capital is unrelated to where an institution or firm is based, therefore Choice 'a' is incorrect as well.
NEW QUESTION # 44
Which of the following are valid methods for selecting an appropriate model from the model space for severity estimation:
I. Cross-validation method
II. Bootstrap method
III. Complexity penalty method
IV. Maximum likelihood estimation method
- A. II and III
- B. I and IV
- C. All of the above
- D. I, II and III
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
Once we have a number of distributions in themodel space, the task is to select the "best" distribution that is likely to be a good estimate of true severity. We have a number of distributions to pick from, an empirical dataset (from internal or external losses), and we can estimate the parameters for the different distributions.
We then have to decide which distribution to pick, and that generally requires considering both approximation and fitting errors.
There are three methods that are generally used for selecting a model:
1. Thecross-validation method: This method divides the available data into two parts - the training set, and the validation set (the validation set is also called the 'testing set'). Parameter estimation for each distribution is done using the training set, anddifferences are then calculated based on the validation set. Though the temptation may be to use the entire data set to estimate the parameters, that is likely to result in what may appear to be an excellent fit to the data on which it is based, but without any validation. So we estimate the parameters based on one part of the data (the training set), and check the differences we get from the remaining data (the validation set).
2. Complexity penalty method: This is similar to the cross-validation method, but with an additional consideration of the complexity of the model. This is because more complex models are likely to produce a more exact fit than simpler models, this may be a spurious thing - and therefore a 'penalty' is added to the more complex modelsas to favor simplicity over complexity. The 'complexity' of a model may be measured by the number of parameters it has, for example, a log-normal distribution has only two parameters while a body-tail distribution combining two different distributions mayhave many more.
3. The bootstrap method: The bootstrap method estimates fitting error by drawing samples from the empirical loss dataset, or the fit already obtained, and then estimating parameters for each draw which are compared using some statistical technique. If the samples are drawn from the loss dataset, the technique is called a non-parametric bootstrap, and if the sample is drawn from an estimated model distribution, it is called a parametric bootstrap.
4. Using goodness of fit statistics: The candidate fits can be compared using MLE based on the KS distance, for example, and the best one selected. Maximum likelihood estimation is a technique that attempts to maximize the likelihood of the estimate to be as close to the true value of the parameter.It is a general purpose statistical technique that can be used for parameter estimation technique, as well as for deciding which distribution to use from the model space.
All the choices listed are the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 45
When considering a request for a loan from a retail customer, which of the following factors is relevant for a bank to consider:
- A. The contribution this new loan would bring to total portfolio risk
- B. The credit worthiness of the retail customer
- C. All of the above
- D. The other retail loans inits portfolio
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
The credit worthiness of the retail customer is certainly a factor for thebank to consider as it will need to price the loan to cover the expectation of default. At the same time, it will need to look at other loans in its portfolio as to avoid unacceptable concentration risk. A corollary of the same theme is that the bank willneed to take a portfolio view of the loan request and consider its contribution to total portfolio risk. Therefore all the choices are appropriate considerations for the bank and Choice 'd' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 46
A bank expects the error rate in transaction data entry for a particular business process to be 0.005%. What is the range of expected errors in a day within +/- 2 standard deviations if there are 2,000,000 such transactions each day?
- A. 90 to 110 errors in a day
- B. 80 to 120 errors in a day
- C. 60 to 80 errors in a day
- D. 0 to 200 errors in a day
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Error rates are generally modeled using thePoisson distribution. Recall that the Poisson distribution has only one parameter - - which is its mean and also its variance.
In the given case, the mean number of errors is 2,000,000 x 0.005% = 100. Since this is the variance as well, the standard deviation is 100 = 10. Therefore the range of outcomes within 2 standard deviations of the mean is 100 +/- (2*10) = 80 to 120 errors in a day.
NEW QUESTION # 47
Which of the following statements are true:
I. Pre-settlement risk is the risk that one of the parties to a contract might default prior to the maturity date or expiry of the contract.
II. Pre-settlement risk can be partly mitigated by providing for early settlement in the agreements between the counterparties.
III. The current exposure from an OTC derivatives contract is equivalent to its current replacement value.
IV. Loan equivalent exposures are calculated even for exposures that are not loans as a practical matter for calculating credit risk exposure.
- A. II and III
- B. I, II, III and IV
- C. II and IV
- D. III and IV
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Pre-settlement risk is the risk that one of the counterparties defaults prior to the date for the maturity of the transaction in question. This may be an unrelated default, in fact there may have been no default on that particular contract, but the party may have defaulted on its other obligations, or filed for bankruptcy. To deal with such cases and to protect the interests of both the parties, it is common toprovide for immediate termination of positions and settlement based on the current replacement value of the contracts. Therefore statements I and II are correct.
Statement III is correct as well - the exposure from an OTC derivative contract derives fromits current replacement value, and not the notional. If the current replacement value is negative, then the credit exposure is considered equal to zero.
Statement IV is correct as it is quite common to restate all exposures - those from credit lines, OTC derivatives etc - in loan equivalent terms prior to estimating credit risk.
NEW QUESTION # 48
An error by a third party service provider results in a loss to a client that the bank has to make up. Such as loss would be categorized per Basel IIoperational risk categories as:
- A. Abnormal loss
- B. Outsourcing loss
- C. Execution delivery and process management
- D. Business disruption and process failure
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
Choice 'a' is the correct answer. Refer to the detailed loss event type classification under Basel II (see Annex 9 of the accord). You should know the exact names of all loss event types, and examples of each.
NEW QUESTION # 49
A risk analyst attempting to model the tail of a loss distribution using EVT divides the available dataset into blocks of data, and picks the maximum of each block as a data point to consider.
Which approach is the risk analyst using?
- A. Expected loss approach
- B. Fourier transformation
- C. Block Maxima approach
- D. Peak-over-thresholds approach
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
The risk analyst is using the block maxima approach. The data points that result will then be used to fit a GEV distribution.
Expected shortfall refers to the expected losses beyond a specified threshold. The peaks-over-threshold approach is an alternative approach to the block maxima approach, and involves considering exceedances above a threshold. Fourier transformation is not relevant in this context, and is a non-sensical option.
NEW QUESTION # 50
If EV be the expected value of a firm's assets in a year, and DP be the 'default point' per the KMV approach to credit risk, and be the standard deviation of future asset returns, then the distance-to-default is given by:
A)
B)
C)
D)
- A. Option D
- B. Option B
- C. Option C
- D. Option A
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
The distance to default is the number of standard deviations that expected asset values are away from the default point. The expression in Choice 'd' represents distance to default. Choice 'd' is the correct answer. The other choices are incorrect.
NEW QUESTION # 51
Which of the following will be a loss not covered by operational risk as defined under Basel II?
- A. Systems failure
- B. Strategic planning
- C. Fat finger losses
- D. Earthquakes
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Operational risk isdefined as the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events. This definition includes legal risk, but excludes strategic and reputational risk.
Therefore any losses from poor strategic planning will not be a part of operational risk. Choice 'd' is the correct answer.
Note that floods, earthquakes and the like are covered under the definition of operational risk as losses arising from loss or damage to physical assets from natural disaster orother events.
NEW QUESTION # 52
A bullet bond and an amortizing loan are issued at the same time with the same maturity and with the same principal. Which of these would have a greater credit exposure halfway through their life?
- A. The amortizing loan
- B. The bullet bond
- C. They would have identical exposure half way through their lives
- D. Indeterminate with the given information
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
A bullet bond is a bond that pays coupons covering interest during the life of the bond and theprincipal at maturity. An amortizing loan pays the interest as well as a part of the principal with every payment. Therefore, the exposure of the amortizing loan continually reduces, and approaches zero towards the end of its life. The bullet bond will always have a higher exposure at any time during its life when compared to an equivalent amortizing loan. Hence Choice 'd' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 53
For a 10 year interest rate swap, what would be the worst time for a counterparty to default (in terms of the maximum likely credit exposure)
- A. 10 years
- B. Right after inception
- C. 7 years
- D. 2 years
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
Right after inception' is incorrect as the interest rate swap (IRS) would be valued at close to zero right after inception and the credit risk would be minimum. Choice 'a' (ie 10 years, at maturity) is incorrect as at maturity there would be no more cash flows to exchange, and the replacement value of the contract would again be close to zero.
Therefore the worst time for the counterparty to default is somewhere between inception and maturity - in fact the range of possible outcomes for the contract increases with the passage of time, and we should find the worst time to default to be a later date. However, towards maturity, the value of the contract starts to go towards zero again, and the maximum value is reached around 7 years. 2 years is too early for the maximum to be reached for the10 year IRS, and therefore choice a is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 54
If a borrower has a default probability of 12% over one year, what is the probability of default over a month?
- A. 1.06%
- B. 1.00%
- C. 12.00%
- D. 2.00%
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
Let theprobability of default over a month be p. Therefore the probability of survival at the end of 12 months would be (1 - p)^12. Since the one year probability of default is 12%, we know that the probability of survival is 88%. Putting (1 - p)^12 = 88% and solving for p, we get p = 1.06%. Therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 55
There are three bonds in a diversified bond portfolio, whose default probabilities are independent of each other and equal to 1%, 2% and 3% respectively over a 1 year time horizon. Calculate the probability that exactly 1 of the three bonds will default.
- A. .011%
- B. 0%
- C. 2%
- D. 5.8%
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
The probability that only one of thethree bonds will default is equal to the sum of the probabilities of the three scenarios where one bond defaults and the other two survive. This probability is given by 1%*(1 - 2%)*(1 -
3%) + (1 - 1%)*2%*(1 - 3%) + (1 - 1%)*(1 - 2%)*3% = 5.7818%. Choice 'c' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 56
Which of the following statements are correct?
I. A reliance upon conditional probabilities and a-priori views of probabilities is called the 'frequentist' view II. Knightian uncertainty refers to thingsthat might happen but for which probabilities cannot be evaluated III. Risk mitigation and risk elimination are approaches to reacting to identified risks IV. Confidence accounting is a reference to the accounting frauds that were seen in the past decadeas a reflection of failed governance processes
- A. All of the above
- B. II, III and IV
- C. I and IV
- D. II and III
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
In statistics, which is relevant to risk management, a distinction is often drawn between 'frequentists' and
'Bayesians'.Frequentists rely upon data to draw conclusions as to probabilities. Bayesians consider conditional probabilities, ie, take into account what things are already known, and inject sometimes subjective a-priori probabilities into the calculations. StatementI describes Bayesians, and not frequentists. In reality however, the difference is merely academic. Risk managers use whichever technique best applies to the given situation without making it about ideology.
The difference between 'Knightian uncertainty'and 'Risk' is similarly academic. Knightian uncertainty refers to risk that cannot be measured or calculated. 'Risk' on the other hand refers to things for which past data exists and calculations of exposure can be made. To give an example in the contextof the financial world, the risk from a pandemic creating systemic failures from a failure of payment and settlement systems and the like is
'Knightian uncertainty', but the market risk from equity price movements can be modeled (albeit with limitations) and is calculable. Statement II is therefore correct.
Once a risk is identified, it can be mitigated, accepted, avoided or eliminated, or transferred by way of insurance. Therefore statement III is correct.
Confidence accounting is a conceptual idea that suggests that accounting statements make reference to ranges as opposed to point estimates in financial statements. For example, instead of saying that the pension obligation is $xx million, the company should say the pension obligation is in a range of $xxm - $yy m with a certain confidence level. Statement IV is therefore inaccurate.
NEW QUESTION # 57
Under the standardized approach to determining operational risk capital, operations risk capital is equal to:
- A. a fixed percentage of the latest gross income of the bank
- B. 15% of the average gross income (considering only the positive years) of the past three years
- C. a fixed percentage (different for each business line) of the gross income of the eight specified business lines, averaged over three years
- D. a varying percentage, determined by the national regulator, of the gross revenue of each of the bank's business lines
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
Choice 'd' is the correct answer, as laid down in the Basel II document. The other choices are incorrect.
NEW QUESTION # 58
According to the implied capital model, operational risk capital is estimated as:
- A. Capitalimplied from known risk premiums and the firm's earnings
- B. Operational risk capital held by similar firms, appropriately scaled
- C. Total capital based on the capital asset pricing model
- D. Total capital less market risk capital less credit risk capital
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
Operational risk capital estimated using the implied capital model is merely the capital that is not attributable to market or credit risk. Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer. All other responses are incorrect.
NEW QUESTION # 59
Which loss event type is the failure to timely deliver collateral classified as under the Basel II framework?
- A. Clients, products and business practices
- B. Information security
- C. Execution, Delivery & Process Management
- D. External fraud
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
Refer to the detailed loss event type classification under Basel II (see Annex 9 of the accord). You should know the exact names of all loss event types, and examples of each.
NEW QUESTION # 60
Which of the following statements are true in relation to Monte Carlo based VaR calculations:
I. Monte Carlo VaR relies upon a full revalution of theportfolio for each simulation II. Monte Carlo VaR relies upon the delta or delta-gamma approximation for valuation III. Monte Carlo VaR can capture a wide range of distributional assumptions for asset returns IV. Monte Carlo VaR is less compute intensive than Historical VaR
- A. All of the above
- B. I and III
- C. I, III and IV
- D. II and IV
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Monte Carlo VaR computations generally include the following steps:
1. Generate multivariate normal random numbers, based upon thecorrelation matrix of the risk factors
2. Based upon these correlated random numbers, calculate the new level of the risk factor (eg, an index value, or interest rate)
3. Use the new level of the risk factor to revalue each of the underlying assets, and calculate the difference from the initial valuation of the portfolio. This is the portfolio P&L.
4. Use the portfolio P&L to estimate the desired percentile (eg, 99th percentile) to get and estimate of the VaR.
Monte Carlo based VaR calculations rely upon full portfolio revaluations, as opposed to delta/delta-gamma approximations. As a result, they are also computationally more intensive. Because they are not limited by the range of instruments and the properties they can cover, they can capture a wide rangeof distributional assumptions for asset returns. They also tend to provide more robust estimates for the tail, including portions of the tail that lie beyond the VaR cutoff.
Therefore I and III are true, and the other two are not.
NEW QUESTION # 61
Which of the following situations are not suitable for applying parametric VaR:
I. Where the portfolio's valuation is linearlydependent upon risk factors II. Where the portfolio consists of non-linear products such as options and large moves are involved III. Where the returns of risk factors are known to be not normally distributed
- A. All of the above
- B. I and III
- C. I and II
- D. II and III
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
Parametric VaR relies upon reducing a portfolio's positions to risk factors, and estimating the first order changes in portfolio values from each of the risk factors. This is called the delta approximation approach.
Riskfactors include stock index values, or the PV01 for interest rate products, or volatility for options. This approach can be quite accurate and computationally efficient if the portfolio comprises products whose value behaves linearly to changes in risk factors. This includes long and short positions in equities, commodities and the like.
However, where non-linear products such as options are involved and large moves in the risk factors are anticipated, a delta approximation based valuation may not give accurate results, and the VaR may be misstated. Therefore in such situations parametric VaR is not advised (unless it is extended to include second and third level sensitivities which can bring its own share of problems).
Parametric VaR also assumes that the returns of risk factors are normally distributed - an assumption that is violated in times of market stress. So if it is known that the risk factor returns are not normally distributed, it is not advisable to use parametric VaR.
NEW QUESTION # 62
The capital adequacy ratio applied to risk weighted assets for the calculation of capital requirements for credit risk per Basel II is:
- A. 100%
- B. 12.5%
- C. 8%
- D. 150%
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
The capital adequacy ratio, also called the minimum capital requirement for credit risk per Basel II is 8% of riskweighted assets. The other choices are incorrect.
NEW QUESTION # 63
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